《理財208 認識 Golden Cross vs Death Cross》

A golden cross and a death cross are exact opposites.

A golden cross (黃金交叉) indicates a long-term bull market going forward, while a death cross (死亡交叉) signals a long-term bear market. Both refer to the solid confirmation of a long-term trend by the occurrence of a short-term moving average crossing over a major long-term moving average.

There are three stages to a golden cross:

• A downtrend that eventually ends as selling is depleted
• A second stage where the shorter moving average crosses up through the longer moving average
• Finally, the continuing uptrend, hopefully leading to higher prices

Conversely, a similar downside moving average crossover constitutes the death cross and is understood to signal a decisive downturn in a market. The death cross occurs when the short-term average trends down and crosses the long-term average, basically going in the opposite direction of the golden cross.

A golden cross suggests a long-term bull market going forward  (升穿阻力位), while a death cross suggests a long-term bear market(跌穿支持位) . Either crossover is considered more significant when accompanied by high trading volume. Once the crossover occurs, the long-term moving average is considered a major support level or resistance level (升穿阻力位) for the market from that point forward.

黃金交叉、死亡交叉都是落後指標，而不是領先指標，因為它們是在價格變動發生後才顯示市場趨勢的。指標只是一個訊號參考，並非絕對準確。也無法確保趨勢發生後能維持多久。 有時候，在這種情況下，當交易者有機會利用這些資訊時，市場可能就會改變方向。判斷錯誤、來回洗刷、反轉再反轉，這些都是很常見的狀況，並不是說交叉了就一定會怎樣。

在市場中，只有最新的價格才是最領先的指標。